I read that the Turkish top brass have resigned en-masse. Is this a sign that the days of military coups are over or an indication of trouble to come? In a mature democracy elected leaders appoint the military leaders not the other way round. The New York Times has published a piece on this unprecedented event. The article itself is well balanced as would be expected from a well respected newspaper. However, the comments from some of the readers show a staggering level of ignorance.
Also from across the pond, An American think tank, the University of New York Centre for Global Affairs, has just published a report of its predictions for Turkey’s political situation by 2020. They see three possible scenarios emerging:
Scenario One – Illiberal Islamism
The Justice and Development Party (AKP) consolidates its power by capitalizing on the weakness of the secularist opposition, responding to the demands of the conservative urban lower-middle class, and building an alliance with the Islamist Felicity Party (SP). By 2020, Sunni Islam is the most powerful force in domestic and foreign policy, to the exclusion of minority views.
Scenario Two – Illiberal Secularism
The AKP faces socio-economic challenges, increasing resistance to its Islamist tendencies, and a deteriorating security situation. This creates an opportunity for the Republican People’s Party (CHP) to come to power, with the support of the military and the National Movement Party (MHP). The new coalition espouses a strong, secure, and secular Turkey. In pursuing these goals, however, it tends toward authoritarianism.
Scenario Three – Political Pluralism
The AKP loses support when it fails to mitigate Turkey’s socio-economic problems. Dissatisfaction prompts civil society and political parties to begin coalescing around new approaches to the economy, corruption, regional development, and governance. Politics becomes more competitive, forcing parties to compromise in order to build governing coalitions, and the polarization between secularist and Islamist forces gives way to pragmatism.
Their analysis, it seems, is that Turkey may slide towards religious authoritarianism or secular repression or become more democratically progressive. Talk about covering all the bases. I’m no political pundit but really, I could have come up with this myself on the back of a fag packet. To think people pay good money for this. I’m in the wrong game. Should we be worried? Don’t ask me.
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Perking the Pansies 
Amazing. I wonder if they are capable of equally-profound self-analysis?
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Shouldn’t think so. I’m glad I left all that behind.
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This was an interesting read. Check out my blog, I’m a young scottish blogger just starting out. http://www.measuredslant.wordpress.com
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Welcome to the blogosphere! You website looks great and you have an interesting angle. Can I make a few suggestions? Hope you don’t mind. It would be good to have a subscription button so people can receive email notifications when you post and why not join twitter and start a facebook page? They’ll do wonders for your exposure. Only a few thoughts. Feel free to ignore!
Best wishes
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Liked this post, found the articles quite interesting. In the latter, the three options were well thought out and seem to capture the internal (and external) political turmoil going on within Turkish politics. But I’d have preferred that had also gone out on a limb and handicapped the chances of each option occurring (e.g., 3-to-1, 5-to-1, etc.). At least then we’d have a sense of the possibilities. Then again, given the hands-locked-on-each-others’-throats standoff we have in the US, we’re not ones to talk…
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I agree. I need to know if and when we need to call the navy in for an evacuation!
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Guess regardless of what happens the pundits have it right, they have given just about every scenario possible.
Marge x
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Hedging their bets, methinks.
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With family in the US and making regular visits it never ceases to astound me the level of dumb – especially amongst those who consider themselves informed. The media is so controlled that finding alternative points of view outside of the internet is almost impossible – takes a little more effort to move a mouse than pushing buttons so TV triumphs. US is also one of the least connected ‘developed’ countries.
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I tend to agree but the the exception are my more discerning Yankee pansy fans. God bless ’em all!
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Thanks for an interesting read Jack ,including the articles .In my humble opinion though I do think that us ex-pats would get more help from Captain Pugwash than our depleted navy if we ever had to be shipped out , and I dread to think of the price hikes and haggling for a taxi to the airport .
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We could always just get the ferry to Kos 🙂
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LOL on ferry to Kos. Or swim?
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